Lab-Grown Diamond Prices Find a Floor as CVD Efficiency Peaks

Polished lab-grown diamond wholesale prices are stabilizing near the production cost floor — slipping only about 2.6% year-on-year after the double-digit collapses of 2022–2024.

The steep devaluation cycle that defined the lab-grown segment for three consecutive years appears to be ending. With rough imports at major cutting centers such as Surat averaging roughly $15 per carat, and Indian lab-grown export volumes now exceeding natural diamond exports, the industry's margin battle has shifted decisively from carat volume to energy efficiency.

Why prices stopped falling

Three forces converged at once. First, rough production costs have physically bottomed out: electricity, reactors and polishing labour now account for the overwhelming majority of per-carat cost, leaving little room for further cuts. Second, demand for larger, better-clarity stones has absorbed a meaningful share of new capacity. Third, weaker producers have exited the market, tightening supply at the margin.

Analysts expect only 5–10% further downside over the next 12–18 months — a fraction of the declines recorded in 2023.

Efficiency is the new competitive edge

The producers gaining share today are not those with the most reactors, but those with the lowest kilowatt-hours per carat. Latest-generation CVD machines, cheaper renewable power contracts and automated sawing have produced a cost gap of up to 30% between the most and least efficient growers.

What it means for buyers

• Price stability makes lab-grown stones far easier to appraise and insure than during the free-fall years.
• Residual value still trends to zero — buyers should purchase lab-grown diamonds for beauty and size, not investment.
• Certified, independently graded stones command a growing premium as disclosure standards tighten.

For the jewellery trade, the message is clear: the era of racing to the bottom is over, and differentiation has moved to quality assurance, grading transparency and design.